PlatoStudyGroup

Under "Transcripts" I have attached a transcription of Marty's Youtube Interview on the This Week in Money Show on July 1, 2017.

As usual, Marty is very generous with his time, thoughts and warnings as a public service.

These interviews are a nice complement to reading his blog and attending his conferences.

Attached is a quick chart of the markets which are turning first per the 2017 HK WEC slides (selected markets).

The right pointing arrows indicate the duration of the turning point until the next turning point.
For example, wheat has turned up  and  ideally would remain bullish for several years.
Same would go for gold and silver once they kick in in the next 2-3 years.


KINGDAVID.

Under Member submissions, I have attached an example of an Array with price overlay illustrating an incredibly accurate picture of the nearly $100 run up in gold from year end to the end of February 2017.  Thanks to Member Bill Pitchford for his work on this.

Dear All:  the study materials for the 2016 WEC included a video of a portion of the 1989 San Diego WEC , specifically its Technical Analysis portion.  My rough transcription of the first portion is being posted today under "Transcripts".

UPDATE JULY 1, 2017

After the beginning portion of the transcript above, Marty covers a "spider web" of uptrend, downtrend, channel, momentum and other lines which he ad already drawn on price charts.  Transcription of this remainder of the video is suspended for now for several reasons:  1) you have to watch the video to make any sense of the words; 2) I  do not yet sufficiently understand or appreciate many of his lines and points and how he is using and interacting with them, and 3) much of the forecasting is somewhat moot given the nearly 30 intervening years.

I am planning at some point in the future to extract the most useful lessons from the remainder and post them.

In the meantime, the introductory material already transcribed embodies many important concepts of Marty on how to trade which applies everywhere and at all times.

Soft Commodities: Looking for a Bottom and Boom

In his slides, Marty identifies corn and wheat as two of the “soft commodities” for which “we are looking for a potential low in 2017 which will begin a commodity bull market”.  2017 HK WEC Slides at p. 3/49.  Elsewhere, Marty has said that he expects commodities to peak with the top of the next ECM in 2024 (the second peak).

Marty and Erwin obviously are presenting these two commodities because they believe these are likely to be very good early trades in the anticipated commodities boom.  This reminds me of their sugar watch list in 2015 which then had an enormous burst up from about $10-$22.  It was one of Erwin’s handful of trades and he obviously made a bundle.

Corn Futures CBOE

Arrays

On the Annual Array provided (p. 4/49), 2016 is the highest aggregate (top) bar reflecting a full jump up in the empirical bar and a panic cycle bar as well.  Indeed a price chart online shows higher intraday highs in 2016 than in the previous year, as well as lower lows on a closing basis – the panic cycle was fulfilled.

Looking back longer term, corn has fallen from 2012 highs of around $800 to as low as $300 in 2016 (a 63% correction) and is currently around $370 since that bottom.

The 2017 array has a direction change which the price action has confirmed so far to date; this year also has some volatility.

Interpreting the arrays, then, the 2016 turning point may indeed reflect the bottom (remember – the high bar can be a high or low) and the change of direction in price should commence in 2017 or soon thereafter (a direction change can refer to 1-3 time periods) – and may already be well under way.

Reversals

Marty also posted nearest reversals from the Socrates Pro Version – presumably showing the annual reversals (they are not actually labeled as “annual” or “nearest” but this is the function of the dashboard).  No major bullish reversals are shown, but minor bullish reversals are at $439.26 and then $746.26.  This, gentlemen, is a HUGE 70% GAP UP a/k/a HOW YOU GET RICH. 

 This is exactly the kind of gap that Marty and Erwin tell us to look for (assuming there are no other reversals in between which are not shown).  Thus if corn closes 2017 above $439, the model indicates this is a very good trade on the annual level.

By the same token, MAJOR bearish reversals are at nearby $301.90 with the next one at $227.40 – a 25% drop.  Indeed there is even a double major bearish reversal (WOW!) at $190.00 which, if elected, would virtually guarantee a violent drop down in no time at all – perhaps to $114 (50%) where there is a minor bearish reversal.   Caution: there is a volatility bar in play so a short term drop would not necessarily be inconsistent with the arrays.

So corn is worth watching to see if it continues heading upwards in 2017 or even in 2018 – be patient and wait for the market to speak.  Watch out for the major bearish reversal below – if it looks like that may be elected year end – RUN AWAY! and then perhaps buy the bottom of the pit.

When corn is assigned to one of our members and we have the Socrates Pro, we of course can follow the monthly and weekly arrays and reversals and see everything lining up and coming in from 7 miles away.

Wheat CBT Futures

Arrays

On the Annual Array provided (p. 5/49), 2017 stands out clearly as the highest aggregate (top) bar culminating a stark ramp up in the transverse, empirical and long term cycles.   2017 is also a direction change.  Thereafter there is no other turning point until 2021 and no intervening direction change.

Reversals

There are minor bullish reversals at $412.10 and $421.60 after which it GAPS UP to $524.10 and $799.76 – gaps of $112 and then $275 or 27% and 52%.   

There are five Major Bearish Reversals  between $299 and $244.  Obviously, the reversals are bunched together with small gaps in between, and it would take a great amount of bearish energy to get through them.

Wheat has dropped from about $900 in 2012 to about $360 in 2016 (-60%) and  has since risen in 2017 to $430.  Thus we are already above the annual bullish reversals that would have to be elected year end.

It will be great to have the weekly, monthly and quarterly arrays and reversals to follow this price action.  Hopefully we will have it soon.

I cannot wait to have  regular reports from one of you.

KINGDAVID