PlatoStudyGroup

Udi -- I hope you don't mind that I am posting your email to me and my response on the Boards.   Hopefully the discussion will help everyone and we can get further input.

KingDavid's Response:

Difficulty of Following a Single Market

During my temporary access to Socrates Trader Version, it was indeed a lot of work for me to follow the gold market alone.  For one thing, I was a complete novice at investing, having always entrusted my hard-earned portfolio to financial professionals with ugly results.  One great benefit now is that I am tutored solely in Marty's economic and trading models -- vocabulary, methods, models and all -- so that I don't need to "unlearn" anything, e.g., "fundamentals" or the nonsense of what Marty calls the "gold promoters".

Second, I was following the ups and downs of gold on the various models on a daily level.  It was exhausting and time consuming like trying to personally catch every snowflake in your mouth during a snowstorm.  I learned a valuable personal lesson that for me such efforts were not worth it: my hat off to those who can operate on this level and profit.  At the 2016 WEC, Erwin said: "Watch the animal documentaries.  The cheetah does not run after every animal in the herd.  He patiently waits, identifies one good target, and then pounces."

"Missing" the Cycle in the USDJPY?


Is it certain that the cycle has been "missed" in its entirety?  Is it possible that just the beginning has been missed but there is more to come?  Ideally a cycle remains in place until the next high bar on the array, which normally should inaugurate a price trend in the opposite direction.  On the yearly array, the "next" turning point for USDJPY is not until 2018 so  the current trend -- even if it commenced earlier this year -- may simply remain in place until sometime in 2019.  Moreover, even if 1Q17 is the relatively high bar in 2017 on the quarterly arrays, here again the next high bar is not until 2Q18.  Keeping in mind that the arrays are not perfect and are not intended to be used in isolation as a trading tool, I would want to consult the price chart, reversals (outstanding and elected), technical charts, GMW, etc. for a better evaluation as to whether to enter a trade now and on what further terms.  So I am not convinced that this trade has to be abandoned now in favor of some other opportunity in some other market.

Using Arrays + Reversals As Part of a Simple Long Term Strategy

In general your simple approach should work and you are correct.  In fact, Erwin said so at the 2015 WEC when Socrates was not available to anyone.  He said that the release
 of listings of reversals for various market alone should enable all attendees to trade until the next conference a year later.  Still, you have to know where to set your stops, how to know when you may have been wrong, and deal with issues such as volatility.  Personally, I am going to have to develop more practice to develop the necessary confidence to do so.  I am not surprised that, as Erwin has reported, Marty rode gold up to its peak in 2011 and has been out of the market for the entire 5 year correction period.  Would I have been able -- without his experience in markets, the Socrates models, and in trading -- to replicate this performance based on access to arrays and reversal points?  I doubt it but I am equally confident that with time I will reach that level.

You still have a good idea here.  Perhaps we can devise a simplified long term trading sheet using the arrays and major reversals for those who wish to invest long term on a "set it and forget it" basis.  Maybe we can do this in time.

Flying and Investing

I will be posting today a new piece on "Flying and Investing".  A pilot constantly scans and seeks input from six fundamental instruments to 1) ensure he is on course and 2) to evaluate and correct any problems.  He also checks numerous other signals and lights.  Along similar lines, right now I want to cross-reference and cross check all of Marty's models and methodologies to safeguard any investment and not rely on just arrays and reversals -- as amazing as these models are.

When it comes to my hard-earned money or my hot girlfriend hanging out at the beach,  I do not rely on any one thing but I keep a lookout at everything that is going on to avoid problems.  LOL.  Personally I am fascinated by Marty's work in any event so it is a pleasure to scan the entire array of his models (no pun intended) which also helps us see how "everything is connected".

The regular member submissions will snip and attach all models so any member can open up the file and see for himself what is going on, not just with the arrays and reversals, but everything else: technical charts, GMW, oscillators, energy, price action envelopes....  This will minimize "opinion" which Mart identifies as the root of all investing evil.  As a person who has repeatedly lost money in the markets, I feel as if I can't be careful enough and can't afford to overlook any source of confirmation.

Thanks for your email and I hope this helps.  Check out my "Flying and Investing" piece when its posted.

David Pitchford

Some classic comments there David....

KingDavid has posted a brief statement of the focus of the PlatoStudyGroup, attached.

KingDavid has attached a Word Document setting out his notes on investment opportunities and precautions identified at the 2017 Hong Kong WEC Conference.
Members are invited to submit their own notes, or to supplement, correct, enlarge or otherwise comment upon these with a view towards the systematic and orderly augmentation of PlatoStudyGroup's collective knowledge and elucidation of these complex matters.  I look forward to your comments and submissions towards these ends.

KingDavid has attached a Word Document setting out his notes on the 2017 Hong Kong WEC Conference.
Members are invited to submit their own notes, or to supplement, correct, enlarge or otherwise comment upon these with a view towards the systematic and orderly augmentation of PlatoStudyGroup's collective knowledge and elucidation of these complex matters.  I look forward to your comments and submissions towards these ends.